Closure of Strait of Hormuz Could Threaten Food Security in Sri Lanka

29-Mar-2026

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If the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed, food prices in Sri Lanka could rise by more than 15%, creating a disastrous situation, Germany’s Kiel Institute for the World Economy has warned.

Following the joint US-Israel attack on Iran at the end of February, tensions in the Middle East have escalated, and the resulting impact has affected the entire world.

Against this backdrop, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a Germany-based independent economic research organization, has released a detailed report titled “The Cost of Closing the Strait of Hormuz: Energy Disruptions and Global Food Security” examining the potential global consequences of such a closure.

According to the report, if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a short period, Zambia ranks first and Sri Lanka ranks second among countries most likely to experience a sudden spike in food prices globally.

The report warns that a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push food prices in Sri Lanka up by more than 15%, triggering a catastrophic situation.

It further notes that while global attention is largely focused only on oil prices, such a crisis could rapidly shift from a fuel shortage into a severe food security emergency for South Asian countries such as Sri Lanka.

The report also highlighted that around one-fifth of the world’s oil and one-quarter of liquefied natural gas are transported through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning any closure would create a chain reaction globally.

Since Sri Lanka heavily depends on fuel imports, fertilizer imports, and an agriculture sector with limited domestic alternatives, the closure would directly impact the country through multiple channels, it stated.

Therefore, the report emphasized that countries at risk must give fertilizer security the same level of importance as fuel security in order to reduce such impacts.