Russia faces manpower woes after failing to stop Ukraine’s Kursk incursion

Ukraine has seized more Russian territory in two weeks than Russia has seized in Ukraine all year.

Reinforcements sent by Moscow failed to stop a Ukrainian surprise offensive in Russia’s Kursk region during its second week, creating a dilemma for the Kremlin – to further tap Russia’s invasion force in Ukraine by diverting more battalions to defend Russia, or to throw new conscripts into the war.

Moscow has so far kept regular recruits into the armed forces on rotation at home, sending only contract soldiers to the bloody battlefields of Ukraine. But the Kursk offensive has changed that delicate political balance.

By counter-attacking Russia on its home turf, Ukraine has put young Russian conscripts who did not sign up for active combat duty in the line of fire. Kyiv’s forces have reportedly captured hundreds of them as prisoners of war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised the potential political backlash of sending conscripts to Ukraine in the early days of the invasion.

“I emphasise that conscript soldiers are not participating in hostilities,” Putin said in a televised message in March 2022, in response to concerns from the mothers of enlisted men. “There will be no additional call-up of reservists.”

He deployed conscripts in border regions by allowing the Federal Security Service (FSB) to enrol them, a move that may remain legally controversial.