Global warming likely to breach 1.5C threshold for first time

For the first time, global temperatures are now more likely than not to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming until 2027, the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday.

It is near certain that the next five years will be the warmest period ever recorded, the United Nations has warned, as greenhouse gases and El Nino combine to send temperatures soaring.

For the first time, global temperatures are now more likely than not to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming until 2027, the World Meteorological Organization said on Wednesday (May 17).

But that did not necessarily mean the world would cross the long-term warming threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The WMO found that an El Nino weather pattern expected to develop in the next few months could have an effect.

The cooling La Nina conditions over the past three years, which ended in March 2023, have restricted the rise in global temperatures.

But the El Nino natural phenomenon will see waters in the tropical Pacific heat the atmosphere above, spiking global temperatures.